For a few weeks now, I have been worried about COVID-19. First of all I might die (because I’m vulnerable), secondly that the government MIGHT be getting its figures wrong. Given the amount of money involved, they / we cannot afford for this to happen.
Now while Lorraine Kelly and Kate Garraway might disagree due to the horrendous ordeal that Kate has gone through with her husband, we cannot let emotions and gut reactions cloud our judgement. The government appears to be doing just that, and not the government, because parliament doesn’t appear to have a say – Boris Johnson – I am right – you are wrong, and if you don’t agree I’ll fine you.
I don’t like the way the data is being recorded – deaths with COVID-19. This is irrelevant. The figure that should be being tracked VERY accurately is deaths of COVID. Where the patient died on a ventilator due to COVID-19. There is a very big risk of people dying because they can’t get treatment for some other problem, and if that wasn’t bad enough, if they have had a COVID-19 test and were positive, it will be recorded as a death with COVID-19. They might have had it and recovered.
How many people have been infected with COVID-19 and show no symptoms? What if for the world to be right again, we all need to test positive for COVID-19 (i.e. contain anti bodies)? If this is true (and we don’t really know either way without more testing and more opportunity to consider different options not being shouted down when somebody questions it), then one can only hope that infections going up but deaths not going up will show that the worst is over. The problem is if other deaths are being recorded with COVID-19, and not enough tests are being carried out, not enough thought being allowed to go into it, then it might be months before this is worked out, if ever. At what cost?
One thing for sure, Boris Johnson is a dictator. We are in a bad position at the moment, and it could well be not COVID-19 directly that is the problem.
At this time, we should be looking at our data, and getting it as accurate as possible, so its possible to see the big picture. As they said in Sweden they had more deaths from COVID-19, but fewer infections, because of other factors such as a light flu season for a couple of years.
Anyway this is not just my view. I think you have to form a view and be prepared to change it when different evidence appears. These are the two things that prompted this blog post.
Firstly an open letter from doctors in Belgium
To summarise this letter, the doctors are questioning if the “cure” is worse than the disease.
Secondly, I read a book recently Factfulness by Dr Hans Rosling. This is a fantastic book about our natural reactions to things and the fact that we are almost always wrong.
Dr Rosling was a doctor treating Ebola. This exact problem occured there – they were recording deaths with Ebola, thinking the problem was geting worse, when in fact the peak had been reached two weeks earlier.
One of the things he says is the first thing you should do is check your data, so you can work out what is happening, so you can see the big picture.
There are about 4 pages on Ebola in his book, and I can’t / don’t know if I should quote them all, but I will just quote one bit:
“There were all kinds of issues, for example, people who at some point had been suspected of having Ebola but who, it turned out, had died from some other cause but were still being counted as suspected cases”.
Hans had the experience, and the contacts, having met a lot of politicians in his life. But unfortunately he died of pancreatic cancer just as his book was being published. What a shame for the world, I am sure he would have something positive and interesting to say if he was alive.
If you want to consider this in more detail, I strongly suggest reading Hans book (and also the link above as well). Most of his book isn’t about COVID-19, but its very interesting about peoples reactions in times of stress and understanding of the world in general.
Leaving this in control of the politicians and their numb skull advisors such as Dominic Cummins, who will drive 200 miles in a lockdown to check their eyesight. How many billions are being wasted, how many jobs are being lost, how many lives are being destroyed, how many people are suffering not being able to live their lives and see their loved ones?
I’m not an expert on politics, but surely just because Boris has a majority based on his manifesto, he doesn’t have the right to do absolutely anything without asking?
I don’t know what is exactly right, I am not sure if anyone does. but is Boris right? On incomplete data? If anyone disagrees with dictator Boris they get shouted down and could get a fine. He wants to axe the economy and will fine anyone who wants to stop him! What has happened to free speech? To debate? We at least need to get parliament involved. Are any of our politicians worth anything?
We are now 2 trillion in debt – double the amount of debt that started austerity in 2009 – and this is still growing massively.
How are we going to pay for this? The amount of money that will need printing to prevent total financial collapse will destroy everybodies savings. As the tax payer is paying for this, its only right that they consider every option, ensure they are properly informed, and give parliament a say.
He could start by sacking dumb advisors like Dominic Cummins. 🙂
To summarise, we need to record deaths accurately due to the virus, not because of a consequence (like not being able to get treated or just having or had the virus) but actually directly by the virus itself.
Why? Because while there can be some very serious consequences for some that catch it, I don’t think anyone yet knows the percentage of people infected vs the number that are actually hospitalised and die. Because tests aren’t that widespread (or accurate??????), COVID-19 could be less lethal percentage wise then flu. We need to know the total number of people infected to be able to work that out, together with an accurate measure of the deaths from the virus itself.
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